This year's World Economic Forum attracts more attention as people are expecting the world's most influential political and business leaders will convey some important messages to the pale global economy. The WEF can take this responsibility since its spirit seems to lie in bringing people opportunities to communicate and listen to different opinions. The discussion session of the New Economic Era today pointed out key channels to deliver such a message.
The discussion was started from the perspective of economics. Panel experts talked about the important drive of world economy in the following several years and the possible methods of dealing with the severe financial crisis. Discussions were sparkled on the role and importance of fiscal policies in saving the national economy and as extend the global economy. In spite of the certain recognition of the fiscal policies, Heizo Takenaka, the Japanese economist, laid more emphasis on monetary policies; and some follow-up opinions by audience questioned the effectiveness of fiscal policies in the closed global economy viewed as a whole. The GDP growth rate can be sustained due to the fiscal stimulus but there may not be corresponding balance in the real economy. What's more, the fiscal policies adopted by one country or a few are certainly not helping too much. Yifu Lin urged the coordinated approach to deal with the crisis under which structure the developed countries should take up the responsibility to transfer some funds to the developing countries to help the development of the latter’s economy. This opinion displayed the picture of a multilateral plan which was not successful during the past experiences due to the unwillingness from countries to bear the responsibility. The IMF is not considered to be successful in conducting the multilateral support to world economy in the past. How about G20 which gathered the leaders from the most important nations in the world? People's view began to shift from a pure economic perspective to a political one. As many people might already realize, the message that could be delivered is not a pure economic one but with strong participation from the political world as a reconfirm of the repeated theme of history. However, to search for the path for multilateral cooperation means a greater involvement in the globalization, a trend that becomes more and more important and invertible whether people like it or not.
The WEF 2009 starts today and will continue to discuss a wide range of topics including global climate changes and regional relations. People expect the forum to give the world hope for dealing with the financial crisis. Obviously, the message that WEF can convey at best is to call for the understanding and cooperation between the world political leaders and business elites.
29 January, 2009
16 November, 2008
從卡城(Calgary)的兩座華人紀念碑說起
於陣亡將士紀念日前的周末和友人前往卡城遊玩。在卡城的最後一日，和友人一起沿著河岸欣賞城市中心區的高樓大廈，在唐人街附近的一個街心公園裏發現了兩座華人的紀念碑。這兩座碑是由兩個不同的華人組織樹立的，不過卻帶來了早期華人在加拿大的辛酸歷史。
最早關於加拿大華人的紀錄可以追溯到1788年。19世紀，早期的華人被運送到加拿大做廉價勞力修建加拿大鐵路，開礦或擔負其他低下的工作。由於工作環境惡劣，且遭到白人歧視，不少人死于飢餓、勞累、工傷、謀殺。加拿大鐵路完工，數以千計的中國勞工被辭退，大量中國廉價勞工充斥加拿大，被指責擾亂勞動力市場秩序。由於早期移民主要是廣東一帶的底層百姓，生活所迫，爲了讓家人有生存的機會，越來越多的華人開始移民加拿大，做廉價勞工。1885年，加拿大政府開始向華人移民徵收人頭稅(headtax)，這是加拿大境内唯一一個被徵收該稅項的少數族裔。這一稅項，從一開始的50加幣，一直升到了500加幣。該稅項不僅向新移民徵收，還要追溯已經定居加拿大的所有華裔。1923年，加拿大政府更是設立了《華人移民法案》(Chinese Exclusion Act)，徹底禁止華人移民。當時的唐人街，可以被形容為單身社區，因爲這些青壯勞動力隻身前來加拿大，而一家老小依然留在中國。禁止移民，徹底把很多華人生生分隔兩地。
在很多華人眼中，二戰是一個非常重要的轉折點。雖然當時華人社區被隔絕，華人被剝奪很多權利，但是華人社區中的不少年輕人堅信，只要爲了加拿大而參戰，昭顯華人社區對於加拿大的貢獻就可以使得所有華人移民獲得合法權益。400多名華裔報名從軍，被派往緬甸和印度尼西亞的敵人後方的叢林執行任務。華人血統，一度在加拿大國内成爲華裔的包袱，在這一刻成爲了華人的資產。他們可以更好地和當地人相處，完成任務。可是戰爭結束了，華人血統，又成為了包袱。
由於簽訂了《聯合國世界人權宣言》，1947年加拿大被迫取消《華人移民法案》。同年，華裔被准許在聯邦選舉投票。但是直到20年后，華人才被同意以“獨立身份”移民加拿大，並在選舉中採用同樣的標準。而政府向華人道歉是一直到2006年現任總理哈珀上臺以後了。
華人在今日的加拿大已基本過上了平等的生活，而据統計，25%的華人更是出生在加拿大的華裔。對於這個群體，很多人也許並不會對於移民有什麽深刻的體會，也未必對於先民的移民史太感興趣。而今天來加拿大的移民恐怕更不會對那段往事有什麽閒工夫去追溯，畢竟似乎那段往事的主要對象是廣東一帶的華人，語言也是以粵語為母語——而今天的移民大多是來自于中國大陸，他們只說普通話，聼不懂粵語，在華人社區裏即使居住地理位置同操粵語的華人並不遙遠，但從兩個社群的交流來看，是明顯不足的，甚至可能是有溝壑的。
如今的移民情況與以前已大大不同，如今的移民者恐怕也不再會有激情和機遇去為他們的“國家”而戰。但是在今天，不再為餐飯和危機擔憂的今天，國家對於他們究竟意味著什麽？他們又會為他們曾經稱爲祖國的地方和現在身份證上註明國籍的地方做出一些什麽樣的事跡呢？也許只有時間才知道。
關於早期加拿大華人的紀錄片可以參看：http://archives.cbc.ca/society/immigration/topics/1433/
最早關於加拿大華人的紀錄可以追溯到1788年。19世紀，早期的華人被運送到加拿大做廉價勞力修建加拿大鐵路，開礦或擔負其他低下的工作。由於工作環境惡劣，且遭到白人歧視，不少人死于飢餓、勞累、工傷、謀殺。加拿大鐵路完工，數以千計的中國勞工被辭退，大量中國廉價勞工充斥加拿大，被指責擾亂勞動力市場秩序。由於早期移民主要是廣東一帶的底層百姓，生活所迫，爲了讓家人有生存的機會，越來越多的華人開始移民加拿大，做廉價勞工。1885年，加拿大政府開始向華人移民徵收人頭稅(headtax)，這是加拿大境内唯一一個被徵收該稅項的少數族裔。這一稅項，從一開始的50加幣，一直升到了500加幣。該稅項不僅向新移民徵收，還要追溯已經定居加拿大的所有華裔。1923年，加拿大政府更是設立了《華人移民法案》(Chinese Exclusion Act)，徹底禁止華人移民。當時的唐人街，可以被形容為單身社區，因爲這些青壯勞動力隻身前來加拿大，而一家老小依然留在中國。禁止移民，徹底把很多華人生生分隔兩地。
在很多華人眼中，二戰是一個非常重要的轉折點。雖然當時華人社區被隔絕，華人被剝奪很多權利，但是華人社區中的不少年輕人堅信，只要爲了加拿大而參戰，昭顯華人社區對於加拿大的貢獻就可以使得所有華人移民獲得合法權益。400多名華裔報名從軍，被派往緬甸和印度尼西亞的敵人後方的叢林執行任務。華人血統，一度在加拿大國内成爲華裔的包袱，在這一刻成爲了華人的資產。他們可以更好地和當地人相處，完成任務。可是戰爭結束了，華人血統，又成為了包袱。
由於簽訂了《聯合國世界人權宣言》，1947年加拿大被迫取消《華人移民法案》。同年，華裔被准許在聯邦選舉投票。但是直到20年后，華人才被同意以“獨立身份”移民加拿大，並在選舉中採用同樣的標準。而政府向華人道歉是一直到2006年現任總理哈珀上臺以後了。
華人在今日的加拿大已基本過上了平等的生活，而据統計，25%的華人更是出生在加拿大的華裔。對於這個群體，很多人也許並不會對於移民有什麽深刻的體會，也未必對於先民的移民史太感興趣。而今天來加拿大的移民恐怕更不會對那段往事有什麽閒工夫去追溯，畢竟似乎那段往事的主要對象是廣東一帶的華人，語言也是以粵語為母語——而今天的移民大多是來自于中國大陸，他們只說普通話，聼不懂粵語，在華人社區裏即使居住地理位置同操粵語的華人並不遙遠，但從兩個社群的交流來看，是明顯不足的，甚至可能是有溝壑的。
如今的移民情況與以前已大大不同，如今的移民者恐怕也不再會有激情和機遇去為他們的“國家”而戰。但是在今天，不再為餐飯和危機擔憂的今天，國家對於他們究竟意味著什麽？他們又會為他們曾經稱爲祖國的地方和現在身份證上註明國籍的地方做出一些什麽樣的事跡呢？也許只有時間才知道。
關於早期加拿大華人的紀錄片可以參看：http://archives.cbc.ca/society/immigration/topics/1433/
陣亡將士紀念日當日所感（11月11日）
在國内年輕男女們歡慶他們的“光棍節”的時候，西方世界的很多國家正在為他們死去的先輩默哀。
因爲沒有任何信息渠道，我沒有能夠出席在Edmonton當地的陣亡將士紀念日的紀念活動，不過十一點前，我準時打開了收音機，收聽廣播電臺直播的在加拿大首都渥太華舉行的加拿大陣亡將士紀念活動。今年的儀式還特別請加拿大唯一在世的經歷過一戰的106嵗老兵John Babcock傳遞火炬並寄語紀念儀式。廣播背景中可以聽到隆隆的禮炮間隔性的轟鳴聲。
下午看了許多CBC關於全國各地陣亡將士紀念活動的報導。最完整的影音資料來自溫哥華。在那裏的唐人街，很多華裔老兵出席了紀念活動。不少年輕的華裔也前來悼念陣亡將士。CBC有一個影像文件是介紹二戰老兵Frank Wong的從軍經歷。他提到作爲華裔加拿大人，在早期沒有合法的公民地位，被人看不起。他是因爲希望為自己的國家做一些實實在在的貢獻來換取華人在加拿大的真正認可而積極報名從軍的。戰後一年多，他們全家獲得正式加拿大公民身份。在此次紀念活動的採訪中，在溫哥華採訪的記者曾經試圖提及本國在早期對於華人社區的歧視，不過話題剛開了一個頭，電視信號中斷，這一部分節目沒有能夠繼續完成。
整個紀念日確實是給予人們很多的反思與懷念。正如CBC在報導中指出的，紀念日不僅是老兵對於他們已故戰友和遠去的戰爭經歷的回憶，也是當代人對於先烈們創造今日和平世界的事跡以及現在正在為永遠結束所有戰爭而奮鬥的軍人們表示敬意的時刻。
在加拿大，很多人都會非常關注陣亡將士紀念日，甚至提前一個多星期胸口佩戴捐助老兵基金獲得的仿製罌粟花以紀念慘烈的一戰、二戰和其他很多重要的戰爭。而在Edmonton，公交車的報站顯示牌也於一周前打出“以免我們忘記 (Lest we forget)”的標語（該標語是紀念日的常用標語之一）。不過在中國，似乎現在很少有人如此長期地、自發地、真誠地而又懷有敬意地去回想我們的歷史。“以史為鋻”是中國人最常說的，卻未必是最常做的。
Today is Remembrance Day 2008, the 90th anniversary of the end of WWI. Around Canada and world, celebrations are held in memory of the end of the ridiculous war and the lives of thousands of innocent people died during the war.
I didn’t attend the ceremony held in Edmonton as a lack of information. However, at around 11 o’clock, I listened to the radio for the remembrance service held in Ottawa and watched TV programmes from CBC on ceremonies held around Canada.
The programme of the service in the British Columbia is the most complete version. I can see a lot of Chinese descendants there servicing Canada’s army. Frank Wong, the son of a shop keeper and a veteran of the WWII, told the reporter about his experience to win the respect and the equal rights of Canadian Chinese citizen by serving the army.
In Ottawa, the only surviving veteran John Babcock who was in uniform during the WWI passed the torch of remembrance to a veteran of WWII, a torch then passed to a veteran of Korean War, a peacekeeper who served in the Middle East and a soldier who fought in Afghanistan.
Every year, it’s time for the veterans and soldiers to bring memories of their late comrades and friends in the war. It is also time for people living in the new era to remember the heroes and heroines who brought the peace and who are devoted to end all war forever.
I didn’t attend the ceremonies in person, but I get the information that is conveyed by the remembrance service.
Lest we forget.
因爲沒有任何信息渠道，我沒有能夠出席在Edmonton當地的陣亡將士紀念日的紀念活動，不過十一點前，我準時打開了收音機，收聽廣播電臺直播的在加拿大首都渥太華舉行的加拿大陣亡將士紀念活動。今年的儀式還特別請加拿大唯一在世的經歷過一戰的106嵗老兵John Babcock傳遞火炬並寄語紀念儀式。廣播背景中可以聽到隆隆的禮炮間隔性的轟鳴聲。
下午看了許多CBC關於全國各地陣亡將士紀念活動的報導。最完整的影音資料來自溫哥華。在那裏的唐人街，很多華裔老兵出席了紀念活動。不少年輕的華裔也前來悼念陣亡將士。CBC有一個影像文件是介紹二戰老兵Frank Wong的從軍經歷。他提到作爲華裔加拿大人，在早期沒有合法的公民地位，被人看不起。他是因爲希望為自己的國家做一些實實在在的貢獻來換取華人在加拿大的真正認可而積極報名從軍的。戰後一年多，他們全家獲得正式加拿大公民身份。在此次紀念活動的採訪中，在溫哥華採訪的記者曾經試圖提及本國在早期對於華人社區的歧視，不過話題剛開了一個頭，電視信號中斷，這一部分節目沒有能夠繼續完成。
整個紀念日確實是給予人們很多的反思與懷念。正如CBC在報導中指出的，紀念日不僅是老兵對於他們已故戰友和遠去的戰爭經歷的回憶，也是當代人對於先烈們創造今日和平世界的事跡以及現在正在為永遠結束所有戰爭而奮鬥的軍人們表示敬意的時刻。
在加拿大，很多人都會非常關注陣亡將士紀念日，甚至提前一個多星期胸口佩戴捐助老兵基金獲得的仿製罌粟花以紀念慘烈的一戰、二戰和其他很多重要的戰爭。而在Edmonton，公交車的報站顯示牌也於一周前打出“以免我們忘記 (Lest we forget)”的標語（該標語是紀念日的常用標語之一）。不過在中國，似乎現在很少有人如此長期地、自發地、真誠地而又懷有敬意地去回想我們的歷史。“以史為鋻”是中國人最常說的，卻未必是最常做的。
Today is Remembrance Day 2008, the 90th anniversary of the end of WWI. Around Canada and world, celebrations are held in memory of the end of the ridiculous war and the lives of thousands of innocent people died during the war.
I didn’t attend the ceremony held in Edmonton as a lack of information. However, at around 11 o’clock, I listened to the radio for the remembrance service held in Ottawa and watched TV programmes from CBC on ceremonies held around Canada.
The programme of the service in the British Columbia is the most complete version. I can see a lot of Chinese descendants there servicing Canada’s army. Frank Wong, the son of a shop keeper and a veteran of the WWII, told the reporter about his experience to win the respect and the equal rights of Canadian Chinese citizen by serving the army.
In Ottawa, the only surviving veteran John Babcock who was in uniform during the WWI passed the torch of remembrance to a veteran of WWII, a torch then passed to a veteran of Korean War, a peacekeeper who served in the Middle East and a soldier who fought in Afghanistan.
Every year, it’s time for the veterans and soldiers to bring memories of their late comrades and friends in the war. It is also time for people living in the new era to remember the heroes and heroines who brought the peace and who are devoted to end all war forever.
I didn’t attend the ceremonies in person, but I get the information that is conveyed by the remembrance service.
Lest we forget.
07 November, 2008
陣亡將士紀念日(Remembrance Day)及罌粟花(Poppy flower)
從星期天開始，看見街頭有人在胸前戴紅花。這兩天上課的時候，發現不少同學都佩戴紅花，不禁非常好奇。同學告訴我那是紀念陣亡將士紀念日的。星期二夜晚看美國大選節目的時候，BBC演播室裏的人也個個都佩戴了紅花，便簡單了解了一下陣亡將士紀念日。
陣亡將士紀念日是英聯邦國家紀念在第一次世界大戰陣亡將士的節日，訂立於每年11月11日。在世界其他一些國家也有類似的紀念日，如美國的退伍軍人日(Veteran Day)，法國的停戰日(Armistice Day)等。而在南非和馬耳他則使用罌粟花日(Poppy Day)的稱謂。
佩戴在人們胸前的紅花就是罌粟花。將陣亡將士紀念日和罌粟花聯係在一起源于加拿大軍醫John McCrae的一首詩《在法蘭德斯戰場》(In Flanders Fields)。法蘭德斯，這個一戰中戰況最慘烈的戰場之一，盛開罌粟花。紅色的罌粟花象徵著陣亡戰士的鮮血。
附：《在法蘭德斯戰場》
In Flanders Fields
In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.
We are the dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved, and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.
Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.
— Lt.-Col. John McCrae
陣亡將士紀念日是英聯邦國家紀念在第一次世界大戰陣亡將士的節日，訂立於每年11月11日。在世界其他一些國家也有類似的紀念日，如美國的退伍軍人日(Veteran Day)，法國的停戰日(Armistice Day)等。而在南非和馬耳他則使用罌粟花日(Poppy Day)的稱謂。
佩戴在人們胸前的紅花就是罌粟花。將陣亡將士紀念日和罌粟花聯係在一起源于加拿大軍醫John McCrae的一首詩《在法蘭德斯戰場》(In Flanders Fields)。法蘭德斯，這個一戰中戰況最慘烈的戰場之一，盛開罌粟花。紅色的罌粟花象徵著陣亡戰士的鮮血。
附：《在法蘭德斯戰場》
In Flanders Fields
In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.
We are the dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved, and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.
Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.
— Lt.-Col. John McCrae
17 October, 2008
A Brief Review on the Current Financial Crisis (I)
Many people like to compare the current financial crisis and the Great Depression in 1930s. However, what we are facing is a much different version from many aspects. In this severe crisis, what is definitely of great value is our deeper understanding on our past wrong conceptions.
A brief review on the current crisis can be traced to the Greenspan’s age. After the fast development in the 1990s, financial institutions began to pursue higher profits by bearing higher risks. The risky desire located itself on the strategy to encourage people with imperfect credit history to purchase houses by taking mortgages with higher interests. As years of practice, with the help of the securitization, financial institutions discovered that it seemed quite safe to securitize those mortgages into Mortgages Backed Securities (MBS). Through this practice, financial institutions could get sufficient funds from MBS to support their loans towards the mortgage takers while using the cash flow from the interests of the mortgages to pay back the return for the MBS. However, the obvious mismatch between the asset and liability didn’t raise enough attention. The mortgages are long-term investment for financial institutions, while the MBS are usually short-term. If default rate of the mortgages becomes very high, financial institutions won’t be able to pay back the returns and principals of the MBS investors. Nonetheless, the seemingly prosperous world economy didn’t allow the elite to give the potential risk a second thought. This was even blessed by the deregulation of the financial sector under the reign of Alan Greenspan.
The up-and-down cycle finally turned to its dark side. When the house owners discovered that they were not able to clear the mortgages they had taken and more and more defaults occurred, the nightmare started. The drying up of the cash flow made the payment for the MBS difficult. What’s more, the financial institutions discovered that they had made another mistake, issuing credit default swaps. The credit default swaps are designed to insure the case when the third party’s (mortgage takers) default. For those MBS investors, buying credit default swaps may be a good idea in case that the mortgage takers defaulted. For financial institutions, they might take the long position of the swaps as a kind of insurance as well. Nonetheless, betting on the positive economic development and pursuing a higher profit, they took the short position; i.e. they are going to pay the investors if those mortgage takers default. Now stories became complex. The sudden turn of the housing market led doubled losses. Financial institutions had to pay the investors not only for the MBS but also for the swaps out of limited income streams. That was the end of the pride of those elite. They began to face the real trouble.
When the trouble spread from the housing market to the financial market, it could not be controlled easily any more. The financial markets nowadays are so interdependent that any fault in the chain may cause the dysfunction of the whole. Obviously the securitization was overused in the financial industry worldwide and the problem starting from the housing issue of the US became a global concern. Stock markets became so trembling that the confidence in the market was lost. This was the time for the test of hypothesis of “perfect arbitrage”. The perfect arbitrage is believed to be the base of modern financial markets, a hypothesis different pricing methods of financial instruments established. One example can show the profound influence of this hypothesis; Robert Merton, the 1997 Nobel Prize laureate, was awarded for his paper on “option pricing” which is deeply based on the perfect arbitrage assumption. According to the perfect arbitrage assumption, whenever the asset price seriously deviated from the true price, the arbitrageurs will fully take advantage of the opportunities to gain the arbitrage profit and correct the mispricing resulting from their arbitrage behavior. If it was true under no conditions, we would not see the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998 and would not see the messy financial markets today. In The Limits of Arbitrage, Andrei Shleifer pointed out the weakness of the perfect arbitrage assumption. The long-term capital management was the case to prove this point. When the market is full of panic atmosphere, arbitrage may not happen leaving the free fall of the asset price. That is what we are talking now; when everyone loses confidence in the market, who dares to put money into the market again?
A brief review on the current crisis can be traced to the Greenspan’s age. After the fast development in the 1990s, financial institutions began to pursue higher profits by bearing higher risks. The risky desire located itself on the strategy to encourage people with imperfect credit history to purchase houses by taking mortgages with higher interests. As years of practice, with the help of the securitization, financial institutions discovered that it seemed quite safe to securitize those mortgages into Mortgages Backed Securities (MBS). Through this practice, financial institutions could get sufficient funds from MBS to support their loans towards the mortgage takers while using the cash flow from the interests of the mortgages to pay back the return for the MBS. However, the obvious mismatch between the asset and liability didn’t raise enough attention. The mortgages are long-term investment for financial institutions, while the MBS are usually short-term. If default rate of the mortgages becomes very high, financial institutions won’t be able to pay back the returns and principals of the MBS investors. Nonetheless, the seemingly prosperous world economy didn’t allow the elite to give the potential risk a second thought. This was even blessed by the deregulation of the financial sector under the reign of Alan Greenspan.
The up-and-down cycle finally turned to its dark side. When the house owners discovered that they were not able to clear the mortgages they had taken and more and more defaults occurred, the nightmare started. The drying up of the cash flow made the payment for the MBS difficult. What’s more, the financial institutions discovered that they had made another mistake, issuing credit default swaps. The credit default swaps are designed to insure the case when the third party’s (mortgage takers) default. For those MBS investors, buying credit default swaps may be a good idea in case that the mortgage takers defaulted. For financial institutions, they might take the long position of the swaps as a kind of insurance as well. Nonetheless, betting on the positive economic development and pursuing a higher profit, they took the short position; i.e. they are going to pay the investors if those mortgage takers default. Now stories became complex. The sudden turn of the housing market led doubled losses. Financial institutions had to pay the investors not only for the MBS but also for the swaps out of limited income streams. That was the end of the pride of those elite. They began to face the real trouble.
When the trouble spread from the housing market to the financial market, it could not be controlled easily any more. The financial markets nowadays are so interdependent that any fault in the chain may cause the dysfunction of the whole. Obviously the securitization was overused in the financial industry worldwide and the problem starting from the housing issue of the US became a global concern. Stock markets became so trembling that the confidence in the market was lost. This was the time for the test of hypothesis of “perfect arbitrage”. The perfect arbitrage is believed to be the base of modern financial markets, a hypothesis different pricing methods of financial instruments established. One example can show the profound influence of this hypothesis; Robert Merton, the 1997 Nobel Prize laureate, was awarded for his paper on “option pricing” which is deeply based on the perfect arbitrage assumption. According to the perfect arbitrage assumption, whenever the asset price seriously deviated from the true price, the arbitrageurs will fully take advantage of the opportunities to gain the arbitrage profit and correct the mispricing resulting from their arbitrage behavior. If it was true under no conditions, we would not see the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998 and would not see the messy financial markets today. In The Limits of Arbitrage, Andrei Shleifer pointed out the weakness of the perfect arbitrage assumption. The long-term capital management was the case to prove this point. When the market is full of panic atmosphere, arbitrage may not happen leaving the free fall of the asset price. That is what we are talking now; when everyone loses confidence in the market, who dares to put money into the market again?
18 September, 2008
The Unframed Financial Market
The Wall Street in the past one week became the only focus of the world. The de facto nationalization of the Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and AIG, the failure of Lehman Brothers, and the buy-up of Merrill Lynch are so dramatic that the global financial sectors become confused about the future of the development.
The US government adopted different measures case by case, an action failing all kinds of predictions and displaying no explicit criteria. However, what Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson are thinking is not how to follow the rules that have ever been laid down, but how to find the best solution to keep the US future advantage and position in the global financial arena, thus supporting the US role as the only hegemon in the world. The US never needs rules to limit its behavior.
Due to this unframed global structure, people can always cheer for the great creativity that the big brother exerts when facing the difficulties as long as there are sufficient financial and human resources support. However, few people really have the interest in pointing out the dangerous when the big brother is walking towards the precipice after lingering in the safety area for quite a long time.
The financial crisis has not reached its bottom. There is no much prediction on what the future would be. However, one thing is for sure that many graduates this year will have a hard time.
The US government adopted different measures case by case, an action failing all kinds of predictions and displaying no explicit criteria. However, what Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson are thinking is not how to follow the rules that have ever been laid down, but how to find the best solution to keep the US future advantage and position in the global financial arena, thus supporting the US role as the only hegemon in the world. The US never needs rules to limit its behavior.
Due to this unframed global structure, people can always cheer for the great creativity that the big brother exerts when facing the difficulties as long as there are sufficient financial and human resources support. However, few people really have the interest in pointing out the dangerous when the big brother is walking towards the precipice after lingering in the safety area for quite a long time.
The financial crisis has not reached its bottom. There is no much prediction on what the future would be. However, one thing is for sure that many graduates this year will have a hard time.
06 September, 2008
A Lonely Journey with Friends
This is a lonely journey of me and my shadow. This is also a wonderful journey with all my friends who invited me to our shared experience.
The Lonely Journey
When the flight finally arrived at Ankara International Airport, I found myself lost in an alien country where most people do not speak the languages I use. When I strove to get to the dormitory and slept for hours to recover from the jet leg, I was surprised to find that the sun was still in the sky at 19:30 and the menu in the campus restaurant was written in something that by no means could I understand. Fortunately, this was not totally unfamiliar to me. Four years ago, English and Chinese characters could be some kind of supplements for me to communicate with Japanese people in Fukouka. Two years ago, Mandarin and English could help me to survive in Hong Kong though I wasn’t able to speak Cantonese at that time. But this time, it is tougher.
As a very special country connects Asia and Europe, Turkey always presents a mysterious culture to me, from the huge Muslim community to the mysterious Huns descendants, from the historically great Constantinople to the current splendid Istanbul.
To explore this wonderful country, I set off my journey since the second day of my arrival. It was a lonely journey of me and my shadow. In the following a month and a half, I used all my free time to travel, from Ankara to Antalya, from Cappadocia to Izmir, and from Pamukkale to Istanbul. This journey was not merely a sight-seeing tour. It was my adventure of the culture, history, nature and people.
I seldom travel with agencies. Usually such journey can be more flexible and amazing. When I arrived in Izmir in the early morning, the quiet Aegean Sea patted this historical city gently. Some people were fishing near the Republic Square after the celebration of Turkish soccer victory against Croatia in the EURO 2008 the previous night. A middle-aged man even slept on the bench, covered with the national flag. As the sun rose, the city woke up. In one of the most traditional Bazzar in the country, people were bargaining for anything attracted them. A variety of stores gathered in this region with several blocks long and wide. Compared with the ancient Agora (old bazzar) hundreds of years ago two streets away, the history similarizes itself. When ancestors invented the markets for goods exchange and expanded them to a large scale, they never expected that their descendants centuries later would lived in the same way as they did, though many of the goods exchanged were quite different. Standing on the wall of the castle Kadifekale established by the Alexander the Great and overlooking the Aegean Sea and the whole city of Izmir, I could feel the proud of the great emperor, conqueror, and adventurer.
People, the market and the castle displayed different angles of the city. Tour is just the appearance of the travelling, and the essence is the desire for adventure which in turn presents you a complex world.
During my adventure in Turkey, I’ve met people of different nationality, and with different stories. One of my Poland friends shouted angrily towards a waiter who tried to sell the drinks to him using Russian in Antalya where 99% of the tourists are from Russia. “Here, no one speaks Russian.” This was the natural response from the hearts of many Poles in the contemporary world. It is also not surprising when I met a family from Palestine who complained to me that Israel’s ruling over Palestine was terrible and sadly recalled the lost of their house just one month after the marriage of the grandmother. “Many Palestinians still keep their keys to their old house… My furniture was still in the original order as it was for my marriage sixty years ago when Israel host allowed me to pay a visit in 2005.” The 80-year-old Palestinian grandmother recalled the experience full of sadness. It is even quite understandable when a Kuwaiti was scared to travel in Iraq and two Iraqi engineers were complaining the military occupation of the United States.
My adventure in Turkey brought me not only the idea of what Turkey is but also the movie sections of what the world is. The adventure does not provide me with the exact answer toward the questions around the world. However, it presents me all the possibilities and arouses my interest in exploring more and try to understand a problem through more angles.
The Journey with Friends
Emre was the first colleague I knew since I entered the TOBB. He was an intern in TOBB and we shared the table. We both had a lot of work to do. He was quite experienced in conference reception and Turkish news summaries, and I was working on the English document summaries, album illustration edition and some paper work. Whenever we had some time in the afternoon, we talked a lot from politics to religion, from customs to anecdotes. The second day we met, he invited me to his flat where several other students in his university shared the rooms. It is not common for Chinese people to invite unfamiliar people home. However, it is a normal practice in Turkey as I gradually discovered in the following one month and a half.
The visit to Emre’s home proved to be just a start for me to visit them and live with them. We five boys had a good balance point in discussing political and social issues and the EURO 2008 as well. During my stay in Turkey, the political challenges against AKP, the ruling party, the arrest of several military generals and the president of ATO and the EURO 2008 were the most important and heated-discussed issues in Turkey. I was fortunate to have Turkish friends with me to know more about the local views on these issues. Especially for my one-week intern in ATO later, just one week after the arrest of the president, I lived with Emre and his friends who gave me support to understand the structure and nature of ATO and help me to relieve my anxiety when my boss gave me a seemingly challenging business order.
At the end of June, I was invited to Eskişehir, the hometown of Emre to attend a wedding ceremony of his relative. This is my first time to meet such a huge relative network. In the wedding party, the whole hall with more than 100 desks were full of guests. Relatives come from this table to that table to greet each other. When I asked how could the bridegroom and bride afford such wedding, I was surprised to know that most of the relatives would present some small gold coins or bracelets as gift. The newly married couple would sell some of those gifts to finance the wedding.
In the following two days I spent with Emre’s family, I had good chances to see the daily life of a typical Turkish family. For the family breadfast, the whole family were laughing at my “strange idea” of the “balcony of belly” since Turkish people have got used to the bulky abdomen. I was also delighted to know that I looks alike the grandfather of Emre’s aunt, a descendent of Tartar. Before I left Eskişehir, I purchased some dessert for Emre’s parents, they were so delighted that his father repeatedly use his broken English to express his appreciation, “you not forget here.” Finally, I became their Chinese son, younger brother of Emre and elder brother of Murat.
During my stay in Turkey, so many people had wonderful days and nights with me. I will never forget the owner of a small restaurant Güneydoğu who had made two delicious dinners for me and told me that I was the first one in his life to communicate with him as a guest. I will also keep contact with the 16-year-old clever Russian boy who wanted to know different culture and business behavior by travelling around the world for future business and claimed to hire me if I would become a famous economist. I will remember in my life the wonderful pictures I’ve taken with a group of young Turkish soldiers in Pamukkale. When they said that they loved China, their eyes sparkled light.
My journey in Turkey is a special one. I adventured in this wonderful country with my shadow and my friends.
The Lonely Journey
When the flight finally arrived at Ankara International Airport, I found myself lost in an alien country where most people do not speak the languages I use. When I strove to get to the dormitory and slept for hours to recover from the jet leg, I was surprised to find that the sun was still in the sky at 19:30 and the menu in the campus restaurant was written in something that by no means could I understand. Fortunately, this was not totally unfamiliar to me. Four years ago, English and Chinese characters could be some kind of supplements for me to communicate with Japanese people in Fukouka. Two years ago, Mandarin and English could help me to survive in Hong Kong though I wasn’t able to speak Cantonese at that time. But this time, it is tougher.
As a very special country connects Asia and Europe, Turkey always presents a mysterious culture to me, from the huge Muslim community to the mysterious Huns descendants, from the historically great Constantinople to the current splendid Istanbul.
To explore this wonderful country, I set off my journey since the second day of my arrival. It was a lonely journey of me and my shadow. In the following a month and a half, I used all my free time to travel, from Ankara to Antalya, from Cappadocia to Izmir, and from Pamukkale to Istanbul. This journey was not merely a sight-seeing tour. It was my adventure of the culture, history, nature and people.
I seldom travel with agencies. Usually such journey can be more flexible and amazing. When I arrived in Izmir in the early morning, the quiet Aegean Sea patted this historical city gently. Some people were fishing near the Republic Square after the celebration of Turkish soccer victory against Croatia in the EURO 2008 the previous night. A middle-aged man even slept on the bench, covered with the national flag. As the sun rose, the city woke up. In one of the most traditional Bazzar in the country, people were bargaining for anything attracted them. A variety of stores gathered in this region with several blocks long and wide. Compared with the ancient Agora (old bazzar) hundreds of years ago two streets away, the history similarizes itself. When ancestors invented the markets for goods exchange and expanded them to a large scale, they never expected that their descendants centuries later would lived in the same way as they did, though many of the goods exchanged were quite different. Standing on the wall of the castle Kadifekale established by the Alexander the Great and overlooking the Aegean Sea and the whole city of Izmir, I could feel the proud of the great emperor, conqueror, and adventurer.
People, the market and the castle displayed different angles of the city. Tour is just the appearance of the travelling, and the essence is the desire for adventure which in turn presents you a complex world.
During my adventure in Turkey, I’ve met people of different nationality, and with different stories. One of my Poland friends shouted angrily towards a waiter who tried to sell the drinks to him using Russian in Antalya where 99% of the tourists are from Russia. “Here, no one speaks Russian.” This was the natural response from the hearts of many Poles in the contemporary world. It is also not surprising when I met a family from Palestine who complained to me that Israel’s ruling over Palestine was terrible and sadly recalled the lost of their house just one month after the marriage of the grandmother. “Many Palestinians still keep their keys to their old house… My furniture was still in the original order as it was for my marriage sixty years ago when Israel host allowed me to pay a visit in 2005.” The 80-year-old Palestinian grandmother recalled the experience full of sadness. It is even quite understandable when a Kuwaiti was scared to travel in Iraq and two Iraqi engineers were complaining the military occupation of the United States.
My adventure in Turkey brought me not only the idea of what Turkey is but also the movie sections of what the world is. The adventure does not provide me with the exact answer toward the questions around the world. However, it presents me all the possibilities and arouses my interest in exploring more and try to understand a problem through more angles.
The Journey with Friends
Emre was the first colleague I knew since I entered the TOBB. He was an intern in TOBB and we shared the table. We both had a lot of work to do. He was quite experienced in conference reception and Turkish news summaries, and I was working on the English document summaries, album illustration edition and some paper work. Whenever we had some time in the afternoon, we talked a lot from politics to religion, from customs to anecdotes. The second day we met, he invited me to his flat where several other students in his university shared the rooms. It is not common for Chinese people to invite unfamiliar people home. However, it is a normal practice in Turkey as I gradually discovered in the following one month and a half.
The visit to Emre’s home proved to be just a start for me to visit them and live with them. We five boys had a good balance point in discussing political and social issues and the EURO 2008 as well. During my stay in Turkey, the political challenges against AKP, the ruling party, the arrest of several military generals and the president of ATO and the EURO 2008 were the most important and heated-discussed issues in Turkey. I was fortunate to have Turkish friends with me to know more about the local views on these issues. Especially for my one-week intern in ATO later, just one week after the arrest of the president, I lived with Emre and his friends who gave me support to understand the structure and nature of ATO and help me to relieve my anxiety when my boss gave me a seemingly challenging business order.
At the end of June, I was invited to Eskişehir, the hometown of Emre to attend a wedding ceremony of his relative. This is my first time to meet such a huge relative network. In the wedding party, the whole hall with more than 100 desks were full of guests. Relatives come from this table to that table to greet each other. When I asked how could the bridegroom and bride afford such wedding, I was surprised to know that most of the relatives would present some small gold coins or bracelets as gift. The newly married couple would sell some of those gifts to finance the wedding.
In the following two days I spent with Emre’s family, I had good chances to see the daily life of a typical Turkish family. For the family breadfast, the whole family were laughing at my “strange idea” of the “balcony of belly” since Turkish people have got used to the bulky abdomen. I was also delighted to know that I looks alike the grandfather of Emre’s aunt, a descendent of Tartar. Before I left Eskişehir, I purchased some dessert for Emre’s parents, they were so delighted that his father repeatedly use his broken English to express his appreciation, “you not forget here.” Finally, I became their Chinese son, younger brother of Emre and elder brother of Murat.
During my stay in Turkey, so many people had wonderful days and nights with me. I will never forget the owner of a small restaurant Güneydoğu who had made two delicious dinners for me and told me that I was the first one in his life to communicate with him as a guest. I will also keep contact with the 16-year-old clever Russian boy who wanted to know different culture and business behavior by travelling around the world for future business and claimed to hire me if I would become a famous economist. I will remember in my life the wonderful pictures I’ve taken with a group of young Turkish soldiers in Pamukkale. When they said that they loved China, their eyes sparkled light.
My journey in Turkey is a special one. I adventured in this wonderful country with my shadow and my friends.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)